If the latest strategy reports of some leading foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are anything to go by, then the outlook for the Indian equity market appears bleak. This is, despite section of experts pitching for the current attractive valuations.
India's stock markets corrected recently but foreign money is likely to chase China rather than India in the short-to-medium term, said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, on Thursday. Wood told the Business Standard Manthan Summit in New Delhi he is bullish about Indian equities from a long-term perspective, but for the short term he is cautious given the quantum of foreign investor (FII) outflows and valuation woes.
'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
Foreign investors continue to pull back money from the Indian equity market, withdrawing Rs 24,753 crore (about $2.8 billion) in the first week of March amid escalating global trade tensions and lacklustre corporate earnings.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is set to introduce key reforms aimed at facilitating smoother mega initial public offerings (IPOs). Key among the proposals is a reduction in the quota reserved for individual investors - those applying for less than Rs 2,00,000 per application - from the current 35 per cent to 25 per cent for large IPOs (issue size above Rs 5,000 crore).
Foreign investors have infused nearly Rs 8,500 crore in the country's equity markets last week, after a phase of heavy outflows earlier in the month, supported by renewed investor confidence, resilient domestic economy and relative insulation from global trade disruptions. During the holiday-truncated week ended April 18, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) made a net investment of Rs 8,472 crore in equities.
From the Sensex firms, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Maruti and Titan were among the major gainers. Bharat Electronics, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank were among the laggards.
Mutual funds (MFs) - flush with cash amid record inflows in July - invested heavily in the Rs 25,000-crore qualified institutional placement (QIP) of India's largest lender State Bank of India (SBI). Fund managers acquired SBI shares worth Rs 10,200 crore last month, making the lender their biggest buy in July.
Among Sensex shares, Adani Ports, Reliance Industries, Infosys, ICICI Bank, Eternal, BEL, HDFC Bank, Power Grid, ITC and Sun Pharmaceutical were the major laggards. However, Titan, Maruti, Trent, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India, L&T, HCL Technologies and NTPC were among the gainers.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Friday, dragged by auto stocks and relentless foreign fund outflows. Weak US markets and tariff threats also dented investor sentiment. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex dropped 424.90 points or 0.56 per cent to settle at 75,311.06.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were the major gainers. However, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
'When you have the best market at your doorstep, international diversification is a distraction.'
The combined market capitalisation of the country's top five IT firms that are part of the BSE Sensex is down 24 per cent since January and their valuation has slipped to lowest levels in the past five years.
Prime Minister Modi urged the people of the country to take pride in selling and buying indigenous goods.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 31,575 crore from the country's equity markets so far this month, in the wake of turbulence emanating from sweeping tariffs imposed by the US on most nations, including India. This came following a net investment of Rs 30,927 crore in the six trading sessions from March 21 to March 28. This infusion helped reduce the overall outflow for March to Rs 3,973 crore, according to data from the depositories.
There has been a decent growth in FDI proposals and new announcements in India to attract foreign investment.
From the Sensex pack, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Power Grid, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, HCL Tech, Reliance Industries and Bajaj Finance were the biggest gainers. Titan, IndusInd Bank, Zomato, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Nestle and Infosys were the laggards.
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries were the major gainers. However, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Bharat Electronics and ITC were among the laggards.
Simplifying GST rates, removing exemptions, easing disputes, and speeding up refunds can boost investment in India and offer the best reply to Trump's tariffs, observes V S Krishnan, former member, Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs.
The implication of April 2 reciprocal tariffs on global trade, trends in overseas markets and trading activity of foreign investors would dictate equity investors' sentiment in a holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. Stock markets would remain closed on Monday for Eid-Ul-Fitr.
From the Sensex firms, Trent, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Infosys, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HCL Technologies, and NTPC were among the biggest laggards. However, Eternal, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, and Titan were the gainers.
During March, FPIs were net buyers to the tune of over Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) in equities.
Among Sensex firms, Maruti zoomed the most by 8.94 per cent. Bajaj Finance rallied over 5 per cent, UltraTech Cement by 3.71 per cent, and Bajaj Finserv by 3.7 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and Trent were also among the gainers. However, ITC was the biggest loser, dropping by 1.26 per cent. Eternal, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro also declined.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Steel, BEL, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and Larsen & Toubro were the major gainers. However, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
Equity investors are up for an eventful trading week ahead as the 90-day suspension period of the reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump ends on July 9, analysts said, adding that a positive outcome from the trade negotiations could further lift market sentiment, particularly benefiting trade-sensitive sectors.
Markets investors became richer by Rs 27.10 lakh crore as the BSE benchmark Sensex continued to rally for the sixth trading day, surging nearly 6 per cent during this period. On Monday, the 30-share BSE bellwether gauge jumped 1,078.87 points or 1.40 per cent to settle at an over six-week high of 77,984.38. During the day, the benchmark zoomed 1,201.72 points or 1.56 per cent to 78,107.23.
A group of up to eight international investors is mulling a bid for English Premier League club Chelsea, one of the investors has told Reuters.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 26,533 crore from the Indian equity market this month so far owing to increasing allocations to China, concerns over muted corporate earnings and elevated valuation of domestic stocks. While the sell-off continues, the quantum of net outflows has significantly reduced compared to October, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) withdrew Rs 94,017 crore ($11.2 billion) on a net basis.
Among the Sensex firms, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, ITC and L&T were the major laggards. Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, BEL, Adani Ports, State Bank of India, Trent, HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 22,420 crore from the Indian equity market so far this month, owing to high domestic stock valuations, increasing allocations to China, and the rising US dollar as well as Treasury yields. With this sell-off, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have recorded a total outflow of Rs 15,827 crore in 2024 so far. As liquidity tightens, FPI inflows are expected to remain subdued in the short term.
Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde on Tuesday took a ride in a Tesla car outside the state assembly Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai, a day after the electric vehicle maker marked its official entry into the Indian market with the launch of its first showroom in Mumbai.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continues unabated, as they withdrew Rs 64,156 crore ($7.44 billion) this month so far on depreciation of the rupee, rise in the US bond yields and expectation of a tepid earning season. This came after an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
Geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan, quarterly earnings and macro data will be the key drivers of stock markets in the holiday-shortened week, say analysts.
Frantic dollar demand from corporates along with an aggressive hedging strategy adopted by importers in the wake of the currency volatility predominately took a toll on the domestic unit despite moves by the central bank to stabilise the currency.
Market watchers link the pullback to underwhelming listing-day performance and the lack of big-name IPOs.
'From tariff tensions and border skirmishes to unrest in West Asia.' 'The worst may be behind us. But any further upmove will now have to come from earnings.'
Among Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India, Infosys, Adani Ports and ITC were the major gainers. However, Eternal, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance and Bharat Electronics were among the major laggards.
ICICI Bank jumped 2.76 per cent after the company posted a 15.9 per cent jump in its consolidated net profit for the June quarter to Rs 13,558 crore compared to Rs 11,696 crore in the year-ago period. HDFC Bank climbed 2.19 per cent despite the firm reporting a 1.31 per cent decline in its consolidated net profit to Rs 16,258 crore for the June 2025 quarter. Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Tata Motors were also among the gainers.
We have millions of newbie investors who are clueless about how to handle sudden and severe adverse market reactions, which arrive from time to time, observes Debashis Basu.
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